Researchberichte zur WM

[StopGlazer]

goldman sachs hat einen netten wälzer publiziert:

GS Sachs Research - World Cup & Economics 2010.pdf

[FAK-masteR]

goldman sachs hat einen netten wälzer publiziert:

GS Sachs Research - World Cup & Economics 2010.pdf

danke;)

ausgdruckt. nette bettlektüre

[StopGlazer]

die raiffeisen zentralbank hat das turnier in einem rechenmodell simuliert.

dass ergebnis ist allerdings wenig überraschend: spanien gewinnt. finalgegner wäre deutschland.

das ding gibt's in deutsch und englisch:

RZB_WM-Spezial.pdf

RZB_WorldCupSpecial.pdf

ich mag die zitateseite:

Ruud Gullit: We must have had 99% of the game. It was the other 3% that cost us the match.

Ian Rush: I couldn’t settle in Italy. It was like living in a foreign country.

Glenn Hoddle: Michael Owen is a goalscorer; not a natural born, not yet; that takes time.

Reporter: "Gordon, can we have a quick word please?" Gordon Strachan: Velocity (walks off)

Georg Best: In 1969 I gave up women and alcohol; it was the worst 20 minutes of my life.

Paul Gascoigne: I never make predictions and I never will.

Alan Shearer: One accusation you can’t throw at me is that I’ve always done my best.

Ronaldo: We lost because we didn’t win.

Gary Lineker: There’s no in between you’re either good or bad… We were in between.

Mark Viduka: I would not be bothered if we lost every game as long as we won the league.

Bobby Robson: We didn’t underestimate them. They were a lot better than we thought.

Schillaci: I dedicate that goal in particular to everyone.

Andy Gray: It’s one of the greatest goals ever, but I’m surprised that people are talking about it being the goal of the season.

Mark Lawrenson: Mick McCarthy will have to replace Cascarino because he’s quickly running out of legs.

Graeme Souness: Today’s top players only want to play in London or for Manchester United. That’s what happened when I tried to sign Alan Shearer and he went to Blackburn.

Mark Draper: I’d like to play for an Italian club like Barcelona.

Terry Venables: If history repeats itself, I should think we can expect the same thing.

Ron Atkinson: I would not say he is the best left winger in the Premiership, but there are none better.

[StopGlazer]

von j.p. morgan gibt's auch ein wm-papier, den "quantitative guide". wenn's nach dieser us-investmentbank geht, dann wird england die wm gewinnen...

JPMorganQuantitativeGuidetoWorldCup.pdf

A Quantitative Guide to the 2010 World Cup

• Quant Models are mathematical methods built to efficiently screen and identify stocks.
  
• They are based on information and data (analyst upgrades, valuation metrics etc) proven to help predict stock returns.
  
• Having developed a rather successful Quant Model over the years, we intend to introduce it to our readers and also use its methodology to apply it to a fruitful field for statistics: Football and the World Cup.
  
• In this Model, we focus on market prices, FIFA Ranking, historical results, our J.P. Morgan Team Strength Indicator etc to come up with a mathematical model built to predict match results.
  
• Ultimately our Model indicates Brazil as being the strongest team taking part in the tournament. However, due to the fixture schedule our Model predicts the following final outcome: 3rd Netherlands, 2nd Spain, World Cup Winners: England
  
• Alternatively, we point out that the 3 favourite teams (from market prices recorded on 30 April of 3.9-to-1 for Spain, 5-to-1 for Brazil and 5.4-to-1 for England) represent a 52.5% probability of winning the World Cup.
  

[StopGlazer]

auch die schweizer ubs hat wm-research veröffentlicht. das schweizer team wird von ihr als das drittschlechteste eingestuft, brasilien als stärkstes.

UBS_WorldCup2010.pdf

2010 the weakest World Cup since 1994

The 2010 World Cup, which has an average Elo score for all teams involved of 1,785, is the weakest World Cup since 1994 (despite the fact that three teams – Brazil, Spain and the Netherlands – have an Elo score above 2,000. The last World Cup with three such strong teams was in 1978 (Brazil, Germany

and the Netherlands). This World Cup will also host the strongest Spanish team ever to go to a World Cup, the strongest English team since 1970, the strongest Dutch team since 1978, the strongest Brazilian and German teams since 1998, and an Italian team of comparable strength with the one that captured the World Cup in 2006. Hence, almost all historical favorites are traveling to South Africa with very strong teams, making it very unlikely

that, with the noticeable exception of Spain, we will see a new, fancy World Cup winner in 2010.

Likelihood to reach the round of 16

South Africa 78%

Brazil 74%

Spain 73%

Netherlands 68%

England 63%

Germany 59%

Italy 59%

Argentina 55%

Mexico 52%

Chile 49%

France 49%

Portugal 47%

Serbia 42%

Uruguay 42%

USA 33%

Australia 33%

Denmark 32%

Switzerland 30%

South Korea 29%

Paraguay 29%

Likelihood to reach the semi-finals

Brazil 49%

Germany 38%

Netherlands 34%

Italy 32%

Spain 28%

France 22%

England 21%

Argentina 20%

South Africa 17%

Uruguay 14%

Portugal 14%

Chile 13%

Country Likelihood to win the World Cup 2010

Brazil 22%

Germany 18%

Italy 13%

Netherlands 8%

France 6%

Argentina 5%

Spain 4%

England 4%

Source: UBS Wealth Management Research